Listening to the education debate in the States today was depressing, as Jonathan Le Tocq noted with some jocularity early on.  Deputies were floundering with operational details of the education system, trying to guess where teachers can work and what they could teach.  Only David de Lisle seemed to have reasonable, though maybe a little dated grasp of these.  Sadly his proposal was far too expensive to be viable, largely as he included a separate sixth-form college, requiring an additional site over other three-school models.

Of all the depressing moments, one in particular stood out for me.  One of the high points  of Amendment #6 was the rebuild of LMDC, which is long overdue.  At one point in his long and spikily defensive speech, Matt Fallaize costed various features with very approximate, and likely slightly exaggerated monetary values.  One of these, was the cost of “updating” the plans for rebuilding LMDC, from the old BB98 standard to the new BB103 standard.

He guessed the cost to update the plans at around the £2million mark. This estimate went unchallenged, and was not mentioned in any subsequent remarks, by anyone. It was, after all, acknowledged that these guesstimates were produced in some haste for the debate.

My sadness was not with the estimate’s accuracy. It was that premise of doing such an exercise is completely nonsensical. It’s the perfect illustration of the lack of understanding of the role the States has in setting Guernsey’s own education policy, that we instead rely on UK “standards” and the lack awareness of the enormous UK political shifts that produce these. They are instead parachuted in uncritically, as if we’re a local authority accepting the dictates of the British government passively.

A commenter  Rowan  on a press article captured this perfectly:

Similarly, Deputy Fallaize blithely stated that because the old schools were built to UK building Bulletin 98 standards and new buildings would have to conform to the more recent Building Bulletin 103 standards, that would cost over £2 million more.

Firstly, in no way is this a statutory requirement in Guernsey, and secondly, equally importantly, he and his advisors clearly do not know that the more recent Building Bulletin 103 was a cost saving bulletin by the UK government designed specifically to cut the costs of new schools by restricting space in the schools.

My point is that these assertions are incorrect and it illustrates that these two deputies have a tenuous knowledge of the expensive business of Education. It also shows they are not being reliably informed by their staff and consultant advisors. This really must be a time for pause and expert review.

To which I replied, that I laughed out loud when I heard that the existing LMDC design would need to be “upgraded” to the latest BB103 standard, as if it were an out of date version of Windows!

Maybe that should be cry instead though.

Not sure if it was deliberate bluster or just genuine misunderstanding, either way, it’s depressing to realise our education policy is so directly influenced by UK standards developed in Whitehall, and yet, those discussing it here in Guernsey have so little insight into what has motivated education policy developments in British politics.

Secondly, and even more important, are the standards to which we are now building. While environmental criteria have been improved over [New Labour policy], area allowances have been reduced. When Building Bulletins (BB) 98 and 99 replaced BB82 in 2004/6, they increased area allowances for secondary and primary schools by 18 and 25 per cent respectively. They did so for good reason, in recognition of changing educational needs and the inadequacy of the earlier guidance. BB103, however, reversed these improvements, this time by 15 and 5 per cent. In doing so it is inevitable that functionality is sacrificed, limiting pedagogic practice and putting additional pressure on social spaces and circulation in particular.

The result is a very real risk that at least some new [Coalition policy] buildings will be unfit for purpose, now and forever. If so, then this is a crime even worse than the extravagancies of [New Labour policy]. To spend more money than necessary on something worthwhile is a poor investment.  To spend anything at all on something that is dysfunctional is no investment at all but, instead, a complete waste of scarce resources.

The really sad realisation is, we have had no discussion at all in the States of Guernsey about whether we want our education building policy to resemble New Labour, or Tory party standards.  We didn’t vote in any UK elections, but we’re getting the policy without our representatives even knowing about it.

Worse, our current two-school model is effectively producing some of the most depressing examples Conservative/Lib-Dem “‘functional big box” schools, but due to the inefficiencies in the proposals, we’re paying premium New Labour prices for them.

Much has been made of the advantages of larger size schools in Guernsey, in that there is greater ability to stream classes by ability, and greater flexibility for curriculum options at both GCSE and A-level.  One key plus point provided by CfESC is the statistically higher ranking of larger schools:

“Of the top 200 non-selective comprehensive schools in England (2018 validated data), 159 of these were 11-18 schools with an average student body of 1350 students, very similar to the size of the future colleges.”

Parents in Guernsey aren’t used to looking through schools rankings, as the education system has historically meant that children, on completing their primary schooling, go to the school that they have been assigned to.  The mantra “you’ll get what you’re given” rings true for school choice.  Parents in the UK however have more options available.

At any one time, there will be thousands of parents all over the UK poring over Ofsted reports and school reviews, trying to determine the best school for their children.  It could simply be the closest one, where they will likely stay with their group of friends from primary school.  If the local school is good, that’s often the best choice.

Alternatively, it could be one further afield, which would mean more travelling time but might be a better fit for their abilities or aspirations.  The change in school system with the removal of selection gives parents in Guernsey a once in a lifetime chance to have some input on the schools their children might go to.

As the size of the schools has emerged as a key consideration, it makes sense to compare options in Guernsey with equivalent schools in the UK.  All the Ofsted data listing UK schools and their latest inspection results are available in Excel format for download from this page:

State-funded schools statistics

Schools are graded on a four-point scale, with 1 being the highest:

• grade 1: outstanding
• grade 2: good
• grade 3: requires improvement
• grade 4: inadequate

Looking at the August 2019 dataset and latest inspection result gives an indication how school size affects the grading, bearing in mind that for some schools the latest full inspection may have been some years ago and not match their current state.

This chart shows latest grade by school size, for all non-selective schools with a sixth form but excluding a very small number of new schools that had no grade, or had not yet been inspected:

This does indeed show a progression by size, but it would be a mistake to assume that simply by creating a new school at 1400 or 1500 capacity, an “outstanding” grade will automatically follow, as there are many factors that can influence a school’s overall grade.

Creating a large school might be lucky for Guernsey and turn out to be two schools like the much admired Cotswold School with 1376 pupils and ranked outstanding.  On the other hand, if things didn’t work out so well, we could end up with a Bexleyheath Academy with 1539 pupils and given the lowest rating of inadequate recently.

There is a lot at stake to be left to chance.  In addition, Ofsted have warned that some schools are themselves attempting to “game the system” and achieve higher rankings, using techniques such as “sham qualifications” and “off-rolling” to improve their rankings.

School ranking, particularly the “outstanding” grade, does need to be taken in context and sometimes treated with caution, but can still be a useful guide.  Comparing percentages for the sizes of school with a 3x 11-18 model, against two-schools proposed by CfESC, the percentages are indeed better for a two-school model but not dramatically so:

Whilst the difference in percentage of “outstanding” schools is noticeable in the smaller school size (18% vs. 30%) it is actually improved for the size of school that could exist at Les Varendes (31%) and overall, much less noticeable when looking at counts of “good” + “outstanding” rankings combined.

It is also worth considering that there are numerically many more schools with sixth forms of a similar size to three 11-18 schools in Guernsey, than in the 1400+ category created by a two-school model:

This shows there are more “good” and “outstanding” schools with a sixth form in either the 801-900 range or the 901-1000 range than in the 1401-1500 range. Clearly, if the conditions are right, it is at least potentially possible to create good schools, with sixth forms, at almost any size from 800 pupils onwards. In some, but not all of the smaller schools with sixth-forms, there are tiny numbers of students in the sixth-form, some as low as 30 places.  In many cases, this is achieved with the help of specialisation and partnering with larger nearby schools to provide additional options.

This can happen if there is a desire to do so, and the confidence amongst teaching professionals that launching new, additional, sixth-form courses at SSHS and LMDC need not diminish the already excellent sixth-form offering at Les Varendes.

Whilst it is of course understandable to design a school system to “play the percentages” and give the best chance of creating outstanding schools, there are many more factors to consider in a future school system than the size of schools.  The 3x 11-18 model, which maintains the existing provision at Les Varendes and launches additional, new sixth-form courses at two other schools, has close match to the school estate in Guernsey, locations close to where people live, parity across the entire system, parental choice, smaller schools in their communities, offers specialism in academic areas, and could aim to live up to a definition of an outstanding school provided by the SSAT with more positivity:

“focusing single-mindedly on performance measures gets you so far. But being outstanding in every sense of the word – for your students, teachers, parents and community – requires a bigger, more courageous vision. It means having your own plan based on what you know is right for your own students. It means subjecting that plan to constant challenge and innovation. Above all, it’s about liberating your teachers to perform brilliantly in the classroom.”

Three 11-18 schools could rationalise the current catchment areas and provide a local school close to many households.  Even with some schools having a specialism, all schools would meet national curriculum requirements and deliver a broad and balanced education to all pupils

The current secondary school catchment areas are shown on this Digimap map:

The two-school catchment areas have yet to be released.  Clearly, these would be two large areas where many households are not within walking distance of their assigned school, and require an increased use of school busses for transport.

With three schools, catchment would divide primary schools to their nearest school.  Using CfESC figures for primary school forms, and adjusting down by 15% to match the island total of 20 form-entry for the two-school split between 2x 10 form entry schools, would assign primary schools to the following three secondary schools:

This creates a slightly larger entry at Les Varendes, approximately in line with existing school building capacity and the proposed 960 place for a rebuilt La Mare de Carteret school, example pupil figures for 3000 total school places

• St Sampsons, 6FE, approx. 900 places
• La Mare de Carteret, 6FE, approx. 900 places (in secondary school)
• Les Varendes, 8FE, approx. 1200 places

..Which would give catchment areas as follows:

Parents could choose to apply for an out-of-catchment area place if desired, and an acceptance criteria would be needed if any school were oversubscribed for a particular year.

One criticism often leveled at the idea of having three schools offering sixth-form education in Guernsey is that the numbers at each school would be too small to offer a wide curriculum.  For this reason, the two-school model is currently favoured by CfESC, as two 1,500 pupil schools are said to be capable of offering a broad curriculum at each site.

Yet many smaller schools do manage to have a sixth form and offer a broad curriculum successfully. For example, if two of the three schools specialised in specific academic areas, and combined with a consortium approach, as many UK schools do.

This allows students to have a main school but optionally take an option from another site, and travel once per day by shuttle bus. It enables smaller schools to offer a wide curriculum. Locally, the colleges also take a similar approach – EC and LC have a combined 6th form, so it is possible to run with a smaller cohort – EC has only 123 students in their 6th form.

The distances between the three schools sites (LMDC, SSHS ad Les Varendes) are actually quite small (around 10 mins by road) less than in this UK example:

Central Sixth – Moseley Park – Wolverhampton, West Midlands

And here too, where coincidentally Laurie Ann Baker worked, Guernsey’s on / off new Director of Education:

4H Consortium – London Borough of Hillingdon

And also here in Islington, which has the benefit of tube transport to move between four schools with small sixth forms:

iC6 – Islington Sixth Form Consortium

In comparison, the travel distances for Guernsey are relatively small, as shown here with straight-line distances and travel time for the closest actual route by road:

Secondary schools in Guernsey have been part of a federation since 2014 where timetable times are synchronised, allowing teachers to move from one school to another.  A consortium, on the other hand, is for sixth-form students to take an additional option that is not available at their school.

These as examples help to show how 6th forms can potentially be viable at smaller schools and still offer a broad curriculum, it’s not intended to create a carbon-copy of an existing consortium that exists elsewhere in the UK.  There are a variety of size school, as one comparable example Ruislip High School, has 1,066 pupils and is rated Outstanding by Ofsted, at about the size an 11-18 school in a 3x 11-18 model in Guernsey would be. Moseley Park in Wolverhampton has 980, and is also rated Outstanding.

Running costs would likely be somewhat higher that with two schools, but if it’s approx. £20m cheaper for construction costs of the 3x 11-18 model, even allowing for CoFE refurbishment costs to LBHS there would still possibly be enough change left over to break even compared with two schools for a few years – and maybe altogether, as some costs (such as “active travel”) would not be required when more people live near a school.

Constructing schools in Guernsey is an expensive business. Comparitive school construction projects in the UK often seem considerably less expensive than local equivalents. Just picking a couple of recent examples demonstrate this:

• Queen Margaret Academy in Ayr, Scotland cost £25 million for an 800 capacity secondary school that replaces a 40-year old building from 1977 with a leaky flat roof
• At the other end of the scale Three Rivers Academy in Surry came in at £34 million for an 1,800 capacity school, funded by selling surplus land for 296 dwellings

But in Guernsey, the costs of building schools has been considerably higher. The original cost in 2014 to rebuild La Mare de Carteret as a 600-pupil high school (with an attached two-form primary school, pre-school and autism centre) was £59 million.  The project was defended at the time as “not gold plated” but it failed to gain approval. 

Another attempt to to rebuild the school was made in 2016, this time with an option to upgrade the capacity to 960 pupils included, but minus some of the original features such as a pre-school and community centre.  The estimated cost had risen significantly to £108 million.  The rebuild was broadly welcomed as long overdue, but it was partly the high cost that led (along with a proposal to combine all post-16 education on one site at Les Varendes, replacing the existing Grammar School with a college offering A-levels and vocational education on the same site) to the rebuild being rejected.

Planned LMDC rebuild, from Coe Design

An alternative proposal for education in 2018 featuring “one school with two colleges” involved using two existing sites for 11-18 education and a rebuilt Guernsey Institite to house a combined offering of existing CoFE, GTA and Health & Social Care education.

The 2019 policy letter from CfESC detailed costs of the proposal to cease use of the existing LMDC and Les Varendes sites and extend St Sampsons and Les Beaucamps for twio 11-18 schools, and a purpose built FE college at les Ouzets, the former St Peter Port school site.  Construction costs are listed as:

• £69 million – redevelopment of St Sampson’s High & Les Beaucamps High
• £13.5 million – redevelopment of the Mare de Carteret Primary School (two form entry for comparison purposes)
• £47 million for the Guernsey Institute at Les Ozouets campus

Giving a total for construction of £129.5 million.  There are additional non-construction costs allocated for for alternative transport, technology and transformation project costs.

Three 11-18 School Costs

Could Les Beaucamps be used for further education?  In terms of the gross space requirements, LBHS is a close match to the proposed new build at SPSS proposed by the CfESC business case:

• Les Beaucamps total gross area: 9,881 sq. metres (PMc report)
• Guernsey Instutute space requirements: 10,480 sq. meters, made up of
  • Performing Arts Centre,  2,200 sq. meters
  • Main Educational Space,  6,217 sq. meters
  • Vocational Workshop Buildings, 2,063 sq. meters

If so, the redevelopment costs for LMDC are less than the construction cost requirements for the 2-school model.  The 3x 11-18 would consist of:

• Les Varendes, 11-18 school, x8 form entry
• St Sampsons, 11-18 school, x6 form entry
• La Mare De Carteret (redeveloped) 11-18 school, x6 form entry
• Les Beaucamps: Guernsey Institute (CoFE, GTA, Health & Social Care)

Without accounting for building cost inflation and before refurbishment costs to transform Les Beaucamps from a secondary school to a higher education facility, the initial construction cost for the 3x 11-18 model is £21.5 million less then the two-school model.